Forecast ensemble

The transnational multi-model ensemble system (TMES) combines the outcomes of existing ocean and wave forecasting systems, helping in improving the forecast accuracy and reliability on one hand and by adding indications on the forecast uncertainty (considered here as the ensemble spread) on the other hand.

All numerical model results are interpolated, through a distance-weighted average remapping, on a common regular lat-lon grid covering the Adriatic-Ionian macro-region with a resolution of 0.02 deg. TMES produces results in terms of the ensemble mean and standard deviation, accounted for a measure of the forecast uncertainty.